The bomb has already exploded and suburbia has been left childless. Suddenly, it’s not just rural areas and the Rust Belt that’s losing population. Even, Beaver Cleaver’s neighborhood has no kids. That’s what’s contained in the 2010 Census. Very few of the 3143 American counties report any growth in population and many [58.6%] report steep declines. Children used to make up 25.7% of the population, even a scant 10 years ago. Now, children are 24% and still declining. In only 49 counties did the kid population increase, most in suburbs around mid-sized cities like Charlotte, NC.
Los Angeles County, as reported in the L.A. Times, is losing children at a rapid rate due to the high cost of housing and the high unemployment rate. Too, hard times have led many new immigrants, many illegal, to return to their home countries, rather than tough it out here. That group had among the highest birthrates.
Time was when new schools were popping up all the time to accommodate the burgeoning baby boom. Now, even the youngest boomers are into advanced middle age. And, they have not produced children like their parents. As a result, the archetypal American neighborhood, Suburbia, USA, is increasingly childless. This fact is having massive impact in those communities. As in L.A. Unified, schools are closing, pools and recreation areas are shutting down. All the activities we associate with child-rearing are diminishing or eliminated altogether–youth sports, music and dance classes, martial arts, swimming, skiing, birthday parties.
With the vanishing children goes the need for the 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with yard. Perhaps, too, the whole concept of suburbia is fading as newer communities insist on walkability, proximity to shops and public transportation.
Who Will Be Future Home Buyers?
During the real estate boom, as home values moved inexorably upward, buyers spread out to purchase a second or even third home. Will this trend accelerate? It’s possible, yet, given the moribund state of housing right now, it doesn’t seem too likely. What does seem likely is that the buyers will increasingly be singles, childless couples, older singles and couples.
Where will they want to live? That, too, is not really known as yet. Many young singles spend their twenties in urban areas like San Francisco and Manhattan or Brooklyn, Boston or Miami. They are marrying later and putting off child-rearing to their thirties. Many of these want to stay in the urban core. With only one or, possibly, two children, that’s what they are doing. The childless couples are doing the same thing. They like the amenities so close by–public transportation, great shopping, wonderful restaurants. Why move?
The Baby Boomers, many of whom were themselves raised in Suburbia, also raised their own children there. But, the kids are long gone for the oldest boomers and going for the younger ones as now even they are in advanced middle age. No longer tied to school districts or commutes, many of the still-huge boomer generation are likely to leave the suburbs where they brought up their children in search of new horizons.
Effect On Today’s Housing Market
None of this is terrifically good news for today’s market of foreclosures, short sales and underwater property. If the kids are grown, why would a couple hang on to the four bedroom home on which they owe twice as much as it’s worth? They would be better off short selling the house and finding something smaller. On the other hand, if they were counting on sellling the home to move to a cheaper, slower-paced area, that option is closing fast as well. Not only has their equity dropped like a stone, but who is going to buy that big house? Who’s going to be rushing to the suburbs to buy anything?
Just when we think it’s getting better, the news comes out that we are in for a double-dip in housing prices. Last year in 2010 things were starting to look up in many municipalities as sales were brisk and housing prices were even starting to inch up again. This year, though, the situation has turned from hopeful to grim. Now it appears that the price increases of last year were mainly due to the home buyers’ housing credit extended by the U.S. Congress to buoy the market. Buoy it they did, but now we’re in for a let-down. In September of 2010 as the last of the home buyer credit buyers closed on their properties, housing started to slide. Of course, it’s natural for sales of homes to slide after Halloween and throughout the winter, especially in cold-weather states, but this year’s slide began earlier and lasted longer.
Compounding the problem was the “robo-signing” scandal which halted foreclosures for several months last fall. Regular sales and short sales continued to pile up as inventory on a stagnant market, then the banks resumed their foreclosures. Foreclosures hit at perhaps a more rapid rate as banks rushed to close out their books at the end of the year. Now, at the end of February, here in Southern California we have not only a huge inventory, but I would even characterize it as a glut of properties clogging up the market.
Another issue adding to the misery is the difficulty borrowers are having obtaining financing. After the bailout, as we all know, banks, instead of spreading the wealth around as was intended, instead simply stopped lending. Belatedly realizing their folly during the bubble years, banks, always ponderously slow and bureaucratic, finally reacted–by clamping down on lending! Too late, banks. It has been estimated that half the population now has bad credit due to the recession in one form another, either a short sale, foreclosure, bankruptcy, late payments on credit cards or, at a minimum, too much debt. Lenders now will not lend to these people
For an analysis of what the near future holds for lending, check out my Pasadena Short Sale Blog. Hint: it’s another downer.
All of these factors have played a part in the current housing glut and consequent stasis. The inevitable result will be–yet lower prices as banks, short sellers and those who must sell for one reason or another, all compete with one another for the few buyers out there. Already this year, analysts have indicated that the scant 2.25% gain in L.A. housing last year has been wiped out. Some experts are predicting that we are in for another dip of approximately 15%. I am not in the prognostication business, but I can say that it’s not looking good.
Already from 2006-2008 many cities in five states, California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida and Michigan, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data, have lost significant value in housing. Starting with Stockton, which lost 75% of its housing value in those two years, the dreadful list continues with Modesto at negative 73%, Vallejo negative 64%, Salinas at negative 60%. These are horrible numbers. Imagine losing 75% of the value of your home in just two years through no fault of your own!
The roll of California cities continues with Riverside-San Berdo-Ontario tied with Bakersfield at negative 47%, Fresno at negative 45%, Sacramento area at 44%, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks at 41%, Santa-Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta tied with Santa Rosa at negative 40%. The l ist goes on-Oakland area -38%, Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine -36%,LA-Long Beach-Glendale -32, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles -29% and even Santa Cruz-Watsonville lost 29% in two years.
That just us. Of course, Vegas lost 54% of its value in those years and is still hemorrhaging. Reno-Sparks lost 41%; Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale was down 31% and is still falling. Then, like California only worse because it has a less diversified economy, is Florida which was and still is a disaster zone. Cape Coral-Fort Myers lost 60% of its value, followed by Naples-Marco Island at 54% negative, Ft. Lauderdale -45%, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton down 45% and on and on.
That was the story three years ago. Much as we would like to say it’s getting better, really, it’s not over yet.
Louis XIV of France, styled the Sun King, famously opined, “Apres moi, le deluge.” After me, the flood. He was right, of course, for his excesses so infuriated the people that his successor was guillotined and his monarchy overthrown in the French Revolution.
SoCal Plunge In Foreclosure Filings
Something similar seems to be brewing in Southern California and maybe even nationwide as lenders ratchet up their foreclosure filings after the “robo-signing” lull. Though foreclosures dropped dramatically in SoCal this fall, so, too, did all home sales. The reasons seem to be many: the end of the home buyer tax credit, stubbornly high unemployment and the generally still-moribund economy. In fact, sales are down a full 16% from November of 2009. This at the same time foreclosure filings fell 14% from the previous November after a 22% decline in October for a two-month total 36% decline. Nationwide, the filings fell 21%.
December is traditionally a slow month in real estate as consumers focus on retail buying, parties and holiday travel plans. Typically, though, also in December smart investors are out there snapping up last-minute bargains of the now-extremely motivated sellers still on the market. Competition is almost always much less, to put it mildly, and sellers are determined to close out their books for year’s end. This year seems to be different as even investors are holding back.
That may be because the huge drop in foreclosure filings this fall has ominous repercussions for home prices in the new year. With the foreclosure freeze over, informed observers now expect to see the banks ratchet up their foreclosures with a vengeance, restarting filings begun in October and November and barreling ahead with new ones in January. Executives from RealtyTrac, a real estate data collection firm, speculate that the housing recovery could be set back three months, if not more, as the foreclosures pile up. In fact, we can expect ” an avalanche” of foreclosures shortly.
SoCal Home Prices
The most immediate effect of an avalanche of foreclosed properties on the market will be to further depress prices in Southern California which had started a slight upward movement. Los Angeles County home prices had dropped 1.2% over November 2009 to a median of $325,000. Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, the hardest hit by the bursting of the real estate bubble, lost 2.5% and 5.0% respectively to medians of $195,000 and $152,000. But, that is a huge improvement over the 30% and 40% drops of previous years. Other SoCal counties actually gained in value. Orange County eked out a .6% improvement for a $435,000 median home price. San Diego topped the charts with a 3.1% improvement over last year to a median of $335,000 with Ventura County just behind at 2.7% uptick to a median of $375,000.
Future: More Underwater Homes
These hard-earned gains will soon be lost as the promised avalanche of foreclosures hits the market. Perhaps sales will pick up as buyers and investors are lured back into the game. But, bargain-hunting fun aside, another price drop for already distressed homeowners will plunge yet more homeowners underwater. That, in turn, spirals down into more foreclosures and more equity loss in future.
Like Louis XIV, banks see this as well as anyone, yet still refuse to modify loans in any serious way. Like Louis, they see, but, obviously, don’t give a damn as long as they get their bonuses. Short-term is the only term.
Sales in Southern California counties are slowing. While this is normal for this time of year as most of the population is occupied with holiday preparations and parties, the amount of real estate inventory continues to grow. The rise in inventory will, in turn, lead to a further decline in home values as home sellers, including banks, attempt to price their properties competitively.
This is the latest real estate info for Southern California counties. Compare to one month ago here. Time on the market is lengthening and prices are dropping–again…